Today is the D-day! Nigerians are trooping out en-masse to
elect the next Nigerian president, Senators and members of the House of
Representatives for the next four years. As early as 7 am, eligible voters are
expected to to be at their polling units for accreditation through the card
reader to clear voters for the voting proper.nigeria-decides
Fourteen political parties and presidential candidates of
these parties are gunning for Nigeria’s coveted number one seat and leading the
pack are incumbent President Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party,
PDP and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC.
Ab initio, the presidential and national assembly elections
were meant to hold on February 14, 2015 but just a week before they were
originally due, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced
a six-week postponement.
The security question triggered of by the activities of Boko
Haram Islamists in the north-east put security at the centre of the election
campaigns and both parties clashed over how to handle the insurgency in
Nigeria. INEC was also appeared not ready as many Nigerians were yet to collect
their permanent voters cards.
In the past, elections have been marred by violence and
allegations of vote-rigging and since parties began campaigning in
mid-November, both the ruling and opposition camps have reported violent
attacks against their supporters. Severally, there were reported clashes
between rival supporters of both parties leaving blood and tears in the trail.
In today’s election, security forces are also coming out
en-masse to closely observe the voting process to avoid violence and
blood-letting.
Indeed, anxiety is high today. The country has a fragmented
political class.Nigeria-2015
The economic situation is uncertain, oil prices are falling
and the naira has been devalued. Stomach infrastructure is a new vocabulary in
the political dictionary.
With these prevailing circumstances, many are expressing
nostalgia for the 2015 elections.
However, the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) has promised a clean ballot. All 14 candidates have signed an agreement
binding them to credible and non-violent elections. Official campaigning ended
two days before polling day.
THE CANDIDATES
The ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP’s candidates
are President Goodluck Jonathan and his
vice, Namadi Sambo, while the main opposition All Progressives Congress, APC,
has Muhammadu Buhari and Yemi Osinbajo
as presidential and vice presidential candidates.
Others are Oluremi Sonaiya and Saidu Bobboi for Kowa Party;
Ambrose Albert and Haruna Shaba for Hope Democratic Party; Ganiyu Galadima and
Balarabe Ahmed of Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, ACPN; Rafiu Salau and
Clinton Cliff Akuchie for Alliance for Democracy, AD and Godson Okoye and
Haruna Adamu, for United Democratic Party, UDP.
Others are Nani Ibrahim Ahmad and Obianuju Murphy-Uzohue of
African Democratic Congress, Martin Onovo and Ibrahim Mohammed of National
Conscience Party, NCP, Tunde Anifowoshe-Kelani and Paul Ishaka Ofomile of
Action Alliance and Chekwas Okorie and Bello Umar of United Progressive Party.
The Labour Party, LP, and the All Progressives Grand
Alliance, APGA, have already adopted the PDP candidate, Goodluck Jonathan as
their candidate as well.
HOW WINNERS CAN
EMERGE
Of all the candidates, only Messrs. Jonathan and Buhari were
candidates in the last election in 2011.
To win in the first round, a candidate needs more than 50%
of the national vote and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s
36 states.
PERMANENT VOTERS CARD
For the first time, Permanent Voters’ Cards are being used
in Nigeria.
The INEC said more than 80% of eligible voters have obtained
their biometric PVCs. The minimum voting age is 18.
POLLING STATIONS
For more credibility, an extra 30,027 polling stations have
been set up, bringing the total to 150,000 nationwide.
Polls, according to INEC, are expected to commence at 0800
local time (0700GMT). All voters must be present at their designated polling
station by 1300 local time (1200GMT) at the latest to be allowed to cast their
ballot. Polls will close when the last person in the queue has voted.
The Nigeria Police said over 360,000 police officers and
sniffer dogs will be deployed at strategic areas.
The presence of international and local observers has also
been approved by INEC to monitor the elections, although the European Union
says its observers will not be deployed in the north-east due to security
concerns.
The national Assembly amended the electoral law on January
15 to allow an estimated one million displaced people by the insurgency to cast
their votes.
Over the years, governance under civilian rule had been
dominated by the predominately Muslim north until 1999 when President Olusegun
Obasanjo, a Southern Christian broke the jinx at the onset of the fourth
republic. Ever since, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has remained in power
with Jonathan breaking the power sharing principle after Yar’Adua’s demise.
In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari were
the main candidates for the election. Buhari won all of the predominately
Muslim states while Jonathan won the rest (with one exception). For years,
Nigeria’s voting process has been dominated by allegations and counter
allegations of rigging. But voting has gotten better with more polling stations
open on time and supplied with ballots than ever before.
The main candidates
and their areas of strength
Once again, today’s presidential election pits incumbent
Jonathan against a familiar foe, General Muhammadu Buhari. But with the
fractured political parties and INEC’s new e-voting pattern, election rigging
should be more difficult.
Fourteen presidential candidates are recognised by the
Independent Electoral Commission as bonafide contestants in the election but
only Goodluck Jonathan and Gen Buhari have a realistic chance of winning.
Incumbent President Goodluck Azikiwe Ebele Jonathan is
seeking a second four-year term but his party, the Peoples Democratic
Party,PDP, is currently facing the toughest challenge since the civilian rule
was restored in 1999 in the person of Gen Muhammadu Buhari of the All
Progressives Congress, APC.
Jonathan’s strength in today’s election is expected from the
predominantly Christian South. However, his government has been fiercely
criticized for its failure to combat Boko Haram in the north-east until recently
when the combined forces from Nigeria, Cameroun, Niger and Chad made a headway
in tackling the insurgents and recovering most of the towns in the North East
occupied by the terrorists .
General Buhari of the All Progressive Congress, APC, who
appears to be a serial contestant has lost the last three elections but he has
a great follower ship this time around with even some sections of the media
predicting he could win this time. The former military leader has described the
PDP’s 16-year rule as “a disaster for the country and its citizens”.
In his base in the Muslim-dominated North, General Buhari is
perceived to be extremely popular.
Due to the trending security issue, Gen Buhari has made
security a priority during his presidential election campaign, promising to
crush Boko Haram within months.
General Buhari had publicly denounced Boko Haram repeatedly,
branding them “bigots masquerading as Muslims.”
Last year July, he reportedly survived an attack on his
convoy allegedly carried out by the group.
While the Nigerian military and their African neighbours
continue to battle Boko Haram, the fears that elections mighty not hold in the
North east are now completely out of the picture as election are scheduled to
hold in every state across Nigeria today.
Political observers and supporters of Gen Buhari are also
optimistic that he will do well in the south-west especially in the commercial
capital Lagos. However, former Niger Delta militants in the oil-rich south are
routing for Jonathan and threatened violence if General Buhari wins.
However, the results of 2015 are not fore-ordained, as they
have been in previous elections. There are question marks on several issues
including holding elections in the war-torn cities of the North East and how
the over one million internally displaced persons in those cities can vote. How
would Nigerian refugees in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger vote?
Political parties have penchant for rejecting elections and
that means that no matter which candidate is declared the winner, there would
still be grounds for the loser to reject the results.
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